Troposphere-Stratosphere Circulation Changes
Contacts: Alexey Karpechko (alexey.karpechko@fmi.fi); Elisa Manzini (elisa.manzini@mpimet.mpg.de)
This DynVar Topic aims to reveal the role of a dynamical stratosphere on surface climate and change. The focus is on Northern middle-high latitudes. Will the NH stratospheric polar vortex weaken or strengthen in response to climate change? How is this question related to the broader question on how is the atmospheric circulation responding to climate change? Can we narrow down the uncertainty in the future projection of surface climate change, by reducing the spread in stratospheric mean change? These question are motivated by (1) the evidence that sea level pressure responds in changes in stratosphere circulation and (2) the expectations, based on climate model simulations, that the stratospheric circulation will change in response to global warming.